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Spatiotemporal interaction of tef head smudge disease (Curvularia spp.) and tef (Eragrostis tef) in the Western Amhara Region, Ethiopia, under the moderate (SSP245) and extreme (SSP285) climate change scenarios

16 April 2026

Mekonnen Melkamu Birhanie, Abeje Girmaye Dires, Mekonnen Mequannent Andualem

Summary

1. Plain-Language Summary This study used computer models to predict how climate change will impact tef, a critical grain crop in Ethiopia, and the spread of a destructive disease affecting it, called head smudge. The research found that both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios will significantly alter where tef can be grown and where the disease will thrive, posing a serious threat to food security in the region.

2. Key Findings

  • Shifting Tef Zones: The geographic areas suitable for tef cultivation are projected to shift dramatically by 2050 and 2070, with some scenarios showing significant reductions (e.g., 19.97% coverage by 2070 under extreme climate change) and others showing initial increases before declining.
  • Disease Expansion: The head smudge disease is predicted to expand substantially, particularly under extreme climate change scenarios, reaching nearly 18,812 hectares by 2050 from its current 10,951 hectares.
  • Increased Overlap Risk: The overlap between tef growing areas and disease presence is expected to increase significantly by 2050 under extreme climate change (from 9,659 to 15,846 hectares), intensifying the challenge to production.
  • Food Security Challenge: The combined pressures of changing climate and increased disease pose a severe threat to tef production and the food security of the Western Amhara Region.

3. Practical Takeaways for Nutrition and Longevity Threats to staple crops like tef highlight the importance of dietary diversity for nutrition and longevity. If tef availability decreases, populations relying on it might face reduced intake of essential nutrients (like iron, calcium, and fiber). This underscores the need for:

  • Promoting diverse food systems: Encouraging the cultivation and consumption of a wider range of nutritious crops to build resilience against crop failures.
  • Supporting sustainable agriculture: Investing in research and policies that help farmers adapt to climate change and manage diseases, ensuring a stable food supply.
  • Nutrient security: Understanding how climate change impacts food production allows for proactive measures to prevent nutritional deficiencies and protect long-term public health.

4. Study Limitations This study relies on predictive models and climate change scenarios, meaning the results are projections based on specific assumptions. Actual real-world outcomes could vary depending on unforeseen variables and the exact progression of climate change.

Abstract

Tef is an important food security orphan crop in the Western Amhara Region, Ethiopia. However, its production is constrained by tef head smudge disease caused by Curvularia spp . Therefore, this study aims to model the spatiotemporal dynamics of tef head smudge disease and tef, as well as their spatiotemporal interaction. Therefore, this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the current and projected geographic distribution of tef head smudge disease and tef by 2050 and 2070 under SSP245and SSP285 climate change scenarios using the MaxEnt model. The model has achieved 89.3% – 90.5% accuracy for tef and over 93% accuracy for tef head smudge disease across the current and future climate change scenarios. Tef is predicted to cover 33% of the Western Amhara region under the current climate scenario. However, its projections indicate shifts to 23.1% under SSP245 and 40.6% under SSP285 by 2050. By 2070, tef is projected to cover around 33.7% and 19.97% of the region under SSP245 and SSP285, respectively. Tef head smudge disease is predicted to occur on about 10,951 ha of land under the current climate change scenario. However, its distribution is predicted to be 6,361 ha and 18,812 ha by 2050 under SSP245 and 285, respectively. However, tef head smudge disease and tef are predicted to overlap on 9,659 ha of land under the current climate change scenario. This overlap is expected to increase to around 15,846 hectares (SSP285) by 2050, but decrease to 3,334 hectares (SSP285) by 2070. This study highlights the compounded challenges of climate change and disease pressure on tef production. Therefore, this research provides critical insights for policymakers and researchers to enhance resilience in tef cultivation and safeguard food security in the face of climate change.
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